Wasn’t a great week for me with the SGP. Was 3-4 -1.3 units so it wasn’t stupid bad. Not a winning one though. CBB kinda took a turn for worse for me this week. Lets get into some numbers. Also going to ramble on about a stat.
Lets look at the numbers for the week.
For the week 3-4 for -1.3x
Last 30 days 18-12 for +5.25x
Since the return of the SGP 44-42 for -.95x
Not quite in the green this week. You will have a few swings. This is a much more manageable type losing week than some those earlier ones. Lets look at some sport specific highlights/lowlights.
NBA 5-9 for -4.61x. This is getting better. It may not show here but I have been doing pretty well in NBA and you should expect some more plays.
CBB 29-20 for +7.66x. This has cooled down a little. Honestly I didn’t win one of my plays over the weekend I don’t think. It will come back. Everything works in cycles.
That’s the SGP numbers for the week briefly. Lets look at the Onside/Leans/Volume type plays depending on what you want to call them.
For week they went 19-18 for -.2 units. Had some swings in there. All in all wasn’t great week. Like I mentioned earlier CBB was just brutal over weekend. I beat the line on 11 of those games and lost in the line move in 10. Ironically not once did the line move mean anything to the W/L. And it usually does not.
Since the return of SGP and this separate tracking for these plays they have went...
90-74 for +9.2x. I have been ahead of line change 70 times and behind it 48. Still pretty good. I am happy with how it is all going. No huge swings to report either way this week. Was pretty much +/- a game or so all week.
So that was last week.
Lets talk a little bit about basketball stats. I do use them. You here me mention it my write-ups. They are not a huge part of my capping. But I do like to see them “fit into the picture”. I guess one of the hard thing about relying on stats is if your a dog bettor it is often hard to look at stat sheet and see where you can see a edge. And I don’t use stats to make some crazy algorithm for PR or anything. But there is one stat that I always thinks stands out to any other. That stat is the simple 3 point %.
First i want to tell a short story. I went to nephews basketball games the other night. He plays on both the JV and varsity teams at his high school. And they are not a great team. When watching the JV game I watched those dudes pass the ball around the perimeter doing nothing. Trying to work ball into the inside. Both teams at the end of 1Q the score was 4-6. Very bad for about any level. Then they went on a crazy scoring run over next 5 minutes scoring in bunches. They started raining 3s. These kids could shoot. The score was 25-28 at mid 2Q. Then it went back to boring basketball. Finished 1st half 27-32. My point is this. I believed, as I told my wife afterwards, that I could’ve coach either team to a big victory by doing nothing but telling those dudes to pass to a relatively open position and shoot the Ball! Form behind the arch.
Now I am no basketball coach, nor do I even hardly watch any CBB. But I do watch a lot of NBA basketball. The thing is the 3 is where it is at anymore. I know in the NBA it is one the biggest factors every year on who makes playoffs and who wins it al anymore. The best teams rain 3s all the time. I am pretty sure it is a big part of CBB also.
So when I look at a stat sheet for a game I am going in on I always make sure to see who is the better team from behind the arch. I love when my dog play is also the better shooting team form 3 point land.
That is prolly my favorite stat to look at. Those of you who have talked a lot of capping with me already know I am pretty simple in my ways. And this is a prime example of that. It works for me. Always has. I think guys get to deep into “The Noise”. Keep things simple and find your ways.
Okay guys I am out. Good luck this week and lets cash some tickets!