The boys of summer are on way back. My favorite time of year to be a sports bettor. So I am going to do a early quick preview of all 30 teams. Picks for each division. And I will let ya know about some season win totals I will be on along the way. Lets get going......
So before I get into the first division let me explain a few things about what this preview is all about. First the preview will be short and sweet. One or two pertinent facts (or opinions maybe) about each team. This is similar to the team sheets I keep. There WILL be a lot more information out there on each team than what I and going be adding to this article, but I hope you enjoy it none the less. Those who know me and my handicapping know I keep the less is more attitude. My preseason work is no different.
Each team I will list the vegas win total. And the projected win total from fangraphs. Take that as you want. It doesn’t factor into my decisions really. Just fun to see. I will also give my opinion on each total. If I have a play on the win total I will add it into the team write up. Including ones I add later I will go back and update this. And there will be add ons. All teams will be added in the order I believe they will finish in their division. At the end I will pick it all. Lets get going.
American League East (two team race)
1. NYY Vegas 94.5. FGraphs 94
The yanks were 2nd in batting last year and they got even better in offseason. Expect more of the same. They kept Gray also and their pitching staff is good. This may be tight race at top. I lean to the under though.
2. BOS Vegas 91.5 FGraphs 93
They need offensive help and got it with Martinez. They should be able to compete with Yanks for east. They have the pitching to make the ALE fun to watch unfold in 2018. Expect them to at least make Wild Card. Lean to Under.
3. TOR Vegas 81.5 FGraphs 86
They were 26th batting last year. They can maybe improve on that a little. They are not the team they have been in recent years. But I do give them a little chance to play for the post season though. Lean to Over.
4. BAL Vegas 73 FGraphs 75
Pitching keep going down hill for this team. No change this season. They have hitters but the pitching keeps them bad.
Although I haven’t done it yet I do lean to the over on their win total. They will out score some teams.
5. TBR Vegas 77.5 FGraphs 78
After I read they let Ordorizzi and Souza go I cant help but to think this will be bad campaign and they seem content to spend this season in rebuild mode. There is some young talent here. Decent pitching. But they shouldn’t keep up with heavy bats in this division. I would NOT bet over on this team.
American League Central
1. CLE Vegas 94.5 FGraphs 93
Best SP lineup in baseball. BP not as strong as last year. Still got the talent to play to elite level. Very good offense still. Honestly though I would lean under here if I was such a homer though. I just cant do it. I lean over.
2. MIN Vegas 83 FGraphs 81
They may compete with CLE. Added some much needed pitchers that should improve them from 19th last year. I like them to go over the total of 83. The rest of this division is bad bad which may help inflate their numbers.
*Play on MIN O83 +104*
3. DET Vegas 67.5 FGraphs 69
They got some new faces but.... Bad pitching and middle of pack bats. No reason to believe they go over. Except I believe CWS and KC is so bad someone in Division needs those extra wins right? I will lean over.
4. CWS Vegas 67.5 FGraphs 66
Bad pitching last year that got worse this year. They are rebuilding team and I do think there will be improvement again this year. Not there yet to compete for the playoffs. I lean under.
5. KC Vegas 71.5 FGraphs 66
They need to make bold move in free agency to compete at all and I don’t believe they will. Won 80 last year but they will not this season. They could very well bring up the rear in MLB this year. I like the under here and may at some point take it.
*KC u70 -140*
American League West
1 HOU Vegas 97 FGraphs 101
They won it all. They made their pitching better. The only weakness on this team could be their closer. I usually just about system play the under on the winner of WS but I cant do it here. Will they repeat???? I like the over.
2. LAA Vegas 84.5 FGraphs 84
They should have a approved offense from their 22 ranking last year. They got decent pitching. Should finish second in west though. Not enough to challenge Astros in my opinion but it will be a race worth watching. Lean over.
3. OAK Vegas 75.5 Fangraphs 79
They finished 2017 with the best offense in baseball second half of season. They are returning a lot. Added some solid BP pitchers. They still may add a solid starter because thats something they need. I will look play them early season. And this is a play I am on already.
*OAK O75.5 -101*
4. SEA Vegas 81.5 FGraphs 82
Team looks a lot the same. Middle of the road. A few guys find their form and they could finish better than I have them here. Tough one for me to gauge. I will lean Under.
5. TEX Vegas 77.5 FGraphs 80
Good Offense. Had bad pitching so they almost totally reworked it. Will it be enough. I don’t think so. I lean to the under a lot because LAA and OAK will be solid. And HOU. So this not quite a under play for me yet but is dancing on verge.
*TEX u76 -135*
National League East
1. WAS Vegas 92 FGraphs 90
Post Dusty Baker era begins. Not a lot of roster change. Maybe the best 1-2 pitchers in league. Because of some improvement to ATL and to PHI though I like the nationals to go under this year.
*Wash U94.5 -115*
2. PHI Vegas 76.5 FGraphs 74
Young core of players who really started to catch their bats at end of last season. Got Santana who may even help more. And I have a feeling they are going to spend some money on another key piece. I see them challenging Washington for East. Playing over on them. +10000 anyone? I played that future for it all.
*PHI O76.5 -115*
3. NYM Vegas 80.5 FGraphs 81
Real question is can the pitching staff regain their mojo? They are up there in age a little. If they can its not hard to see Mets competing with PHI and WAS. Injuries though? I don’t expect a lot from them. Lean to under
4. ATL Vegas 74.5 FGraphs 73
Young aggressive pitching staff that may settle down and be pretty good. Strong catching. Still probably one piece away form playoff contention though. Wouldn’t shock me to see them compete for maybe a wildcard spot. Consider the over here also.
5. MIA Vegas 64.5 FGraphs 64
Worst team in baseball. Not a lot to say. I like playing bad teams and cant imagine I will be able to find a lot of reasons to play these guys. They dismantled this team. They could lose 100. Lean Under.
National League Central
1. CHC Vegas 93.5 FGraphs 94
Arrieta will be gone. Darvish is in. Solid offense. Maybe only real hole is depth in BP. Prolly 3 consecutive NLC titles. I will lean Under.
2. MIL Vegas 84.5 FGraphs 79
Some solid offseason moves. Decent pitching. I like them but not quite there yet. They could challenge that over but its not enough for me to go in yet. But they could still make a trade to really upgrade the pitching and and be legit contender. Lean to the Over.
3. STL Vegas 85.5 FGraphs 88
Should be solid year. Manage to be solid most years because strong farm system. Expect same. If their Pitchers show out the playoffs are not out of question. I lean over on them also.
*STL o85 -135*
4. PIT Vegas 73.5 FGraphs 75
Traded away key pieces. Appears to be going full rebuild. I don’t expect much here. They won 75 last year and I don’t see how they could get back there this year. Bad offense, Bad Pitching. Today they added Dickerson. That wont be enough in my opinion. I am playing this one.
*Play U73.5 -125*
5. CIN Vegas 73.5 FGraphs 72
Bad pitching last year, didn’t get better. Offense got worse. Still some bats in there though. They will be in cellar. I think the line is 1-2 games high. I lean under.
National League West
1. LAD Vegas 96.5 FGraphs 93
They have basically everyone back to try and finish what they just missed. They have elite pitching and solid offense. I will lean under though.
2. SF Vegas 82.5 FGraphs 83
I see big improvement from last year. Bumgarner should be back to form and added some veterans. They have some BP holes. They are not quite prime to challenge the dodgers. I lean over.
3. COL Vegas 82.5 FGraphs 79
Can they keep the pitching numbers from last year? If so with their good O I see them playing to a good level. I just would be surprised to see them make the playoffs. Playing under.
*Under U81.5 +110*
4. ARI Vegas 85.5 FGraphs 82
ARI made great turnaround last season but I see some regression this year. they don't have a lot of depth. I will lean under.
5. SD Vegas 69.5 FGraphs 73
Last years worst offense may improve a little with Hosmer but I don’t think it will be enough to get out of the cellar. They will be one of the lowest scoring clubs in the MLB. Once you add the fact they have basically a bad rotation it could be ugly. I have to lean under.
That’s it for the preview. Hope you found something interesting in there. Lets review the plays.
OAK o75.5 -101
WAS u94.5 -115
MIN 083 +104
PHI o76.5 -115
PIT u73.5 -125
STL o85 -135
KC u70 -140
TEX u76 -135
And PHI to win WS at +10000
There may be a few others but for now this is what I like.
There will be certain teams I play or fade based on these numbers throughout the season. I would advise you to read my MLB underdog article which I will repost to site. I think it is great way to bet the bases and I will continue to use it as a staple in my baseball capping.
That’s it. Bring on the boys of summer!