Hey guys, this will be the weekly blog for Feb 26 and will go over monthly stuff to being that it is so close. Will talk about the first 100 game set since return. The hot couple weeks. How well the “other” plays have been. I will give summary of plays by league as usual. Then to break away from numbers We will talk about line moves in a segment. I will talk a little baseball to end with. Lets get going.
Well it has been a great couple weeks. Things have been strong. I finished my first 100 pick set at 53-47. 53% is really good. I have done better in past but will take that every single time. And that was living thru a bad bad run. The only time I don’t really expect number that good is during bases when that could drop a little with the amount of dogs I play. Happy as hell with 46-48% there. Okay lets look at some SGP numbers.
Last Week 6-1 +4.93x
Last Month 18-12 +5.16x
YTD 31-26 +4.32x
Since return 53-47 +2.62x
That’s one hell of the week. Honestly I didn’t know if I was going to make my numbers goals a few weeks back when thing looked bad. But I stayed true to my theories and personal rules. And it made it back. Here’s a look at the basketball numbers.
CBB 38-25 +11.23x
NBA 5-9 -4.61x
NBA has been getting better. Believe it or not I have hit 3/4 after really struggling. CBB has been king no doubt but unfortunately it is coming to a close very soon. I don’t have a crazy amount of action once tournaments start. The value in CBB in my opinion is conference play. The tourney is fun for some but to me I just don’t see the value. I am sure there will be a play or two but may lean a little to others for support there.
The up side is NBA usually turns around for me this time of year. At least the last couple years. My personal theory is that public/squares whatever you want to call them get to wrapped up on tanking or resting of players or “need to” wins. These thing happen for sure but it is also built into line. I love a game where a “tanking” team is going to play young guys in their lineups early. These guys are professional athletes that want to showcase their talents. They try hard. And a lot of time the drop off is small. Books move line a lot because pubs love it.
Lets talk about the “other” plays.
Since January 15th once I got the SGP going as my primary play to give out I have been listing these plays in SGP write up or tweeting them. They are also played on the Onside Sports app. A brief history of these is this. Last year I basically gave these out all year. It just got to be to much work to release them in a way I felt was fair to you. I decided to go back to the SGP because I felt it would be a better service, and a lot of you guys who have been around wanted this. Well I continued playing all my plays till the end of the year because 1. It was doing well 2.I promised myself I was going to ride it to end of year. And my PLAN was to start playing the SGP myself as the only real play for myself also. Now to come up with the SGP I do all this work and have all these plays sitting in front of me at end of morning or afternoon. And starting Jan I was jus playing SGP but I continued to see how well they were doing. Jan 15th I started listing them in SGP writeup and Tweet addons. Each game is exclusively played on Onside Sports now also. Give the guys who want them several ways to get them that takes almost no extra work for me. I don’t even give the lines. That way you need to do some thinking and I don’t get bogged down trying to get every play in and out constantly interrupting my capping and causing me problems. These will continue to go out the same way they have been. I will update them on my blog or can at any time whoever asked. Here’s the numbers since the 15th.
Week 30-19 for 9.3x 61%
Since started 138-107 for 21.1x 56%
Those are nasty numbers right there. It isn’t for everybody thats for sure. If you have been along....glad I could help. If not and your playing the SGP then it has been solid also. Anyways that was the last couple weeks.
To answer a question I got on one of my games over the weekend.
“Why did you say the sharp action is on the dog when clearly most the tickets and money are on the favorite in your write up?”
When I say sharp action I am not always referring to “Sharps”. I wrote awhile back about them. I also refer to advantage players as sharps also. When books get bets from these guys, and the bet doesn’t need to be overly large, they pay attention. When my dude worked for a book he would talk about the sharpest guys who played sometimes wouldn’t bet nearly as high as the stigma would suggest. He talked about on guy who clearly was one of the best who played 500 a game. I think people think sharps lay 10k a game. Thats just not true from all good players. Rather he plays for 100 or 10k if he beats the book he can be labeled that way. And they WILL move lines based on it. That’s why when you are looking at the handy sports insights app and see tons of tickets and tons of money on one side and the line holding fast or moving in other direction it very well could be the risk management guy has decided that they will take a stance with that guy. And before you say they don’t do that pay attention to those type plays and you will see that it does happen and they do win at a good clip. Hope that answers you questions.
Bases has started it preseason and I am excited. I am working on the baseball preview still. I needed more information to release. It should come down this week. So much information to digest. I have made some plays and some leans but I am not finished yet. Stay tuned for that.
One more small tidbit. I did my first Podcast this past week. There will be more. It wasn’t great but maybe it will improve. Wont be one everyday. Pay attention for them to post up on twitter.
Okay thats it for today. GLA! Until next time.