Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Pick
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Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) L

$3,500.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 10 Jan 2017 3:18 PM

pick locked in 8 months ago


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The Packers have basically been playing in must-win games since the end of November. That’s what happens when you start 4-6, but Green Bay has bounced back from that ugly 10 week stretch in a big way by putting together seven straight victories. Looking to squash their win streak and end their season is the Dallas Cowboys who are on a nice run of their own as they’ve won seven straight games at home.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games in the Divisional round.
The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs as road underdogs.
The Packers are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after losing the previous game in a matchup.

Leading the Pack on their epic stretch run has been, big shock, Aaron Rodgers. Over his last eight games, he’s gone off for 22 TDs and ZERO INTs, with five games of 300 or more yards. He also has a nice stat line in six career divisional round games — 12 TDs, three picks. This includes a win over Dallas in the divisional round two years ago where he threw for 316 yards and three TDs. It looks extremely likely, however, that he’ll be without his top target, Jordy Nelson, who fractured his ribs vs the Giants.

Dallas’ greatest strength is clearly its running game which was on full display in its Week 6 win in Green Bay. Ezekiel Elliott went off for 157 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. It was clearly an off day for the Packers, as Green Bay was actually one of eight teams in the NFL to allow less than 94 rushing yards per game. The Packers D has gone four straight games without allowing 100 rushing yards and If they can limit Elliott’s production, they’ll be in an excellent position to win.

Slowing the Dallas run would force Dak Prescott to throw more and this is where it gets interesting. There were just four games this season where Prescott had a QB rating below 100. In each of those games he had 36 or more pass attempts and Dallas went on to lose two of the games. Dallas won each of the games where Prescott had a QB rating above 100, but the QB averaged 10 fewer pass attempts in those games. So in other words, Dallas isn’t at its best when Prescott is forced to throw.

If you’re still on the fence, there’s an interesting historic trend that might push you towards the Cowboys. Since 1983, these teams have played 13 times in Dallas. Green Bay went just 2-11 SU in those games, and covered the spread just three times.

PREDICTION: Dallas Cowboys 30-17




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SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Green Bay Packers +5.0 +199.0 52.5
Dallas Cowboys -5.0 -199.0

This is the Consensus Fair Line.   what is the Fair Line?



Game time: Sunday 1/15, 4:40 PM


Green Bay Packers 34 FINAL
Dallas Cowboys 31


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Payout Information


points adjust ML Over/Under adjust
Green Bay Packers +5.0 -102.0 +199.0 52.5 over -104.0
Dallas Cowboys -5.0 102.0 -199.0 52.5 under 104.0

A $100 Moneyline bet on Green Bay Packers +199.0 cashes for $299.00
A $100 Moneyline bet on Dallas Cowboys -199.0 cashes for $150.25
A $100 Points Spread bet on Green Bay Packers +5.0 cashes for $198.04
A $100 Points Spread bet on Dallas Cowboys -5.0 cashes for $202.00
A $100 Over bet on the total points 52.5 cashes for $196.15
A $100 Under bet on the total points 52.5 cashes for $204.00




Line Moves For Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday 1/15, 4:40 PM EST


Green Bay Packers +199.0 Moneyline Moves


Green Bay Packers MONEYLINE payout currently is $299.00 for a $100 bet. Green Bay Packers MONEYLINE payout has increased $19.00 versus when the line first opened. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $321.00.

These MONEYLINE odds imply Green Bay Packers a 33% chance of winning. If you think Green Bay Packers chances of winning are better than 33% then betting Green Bay Packers on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Dallas Cowboys -199.0 Moneyline Moves


Dallas Cowboys MONEYLINE payout currently is $150.25 for a $100 bet. Dallas Cowboys MONEYLINE payout has increased $2.63 versus when the moneyline first opened. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $154.05.

These MONEYLINE odds imply Dallas Cowboys a 67% chance of winning. If you think Dallas Cowboys chances of winning are better than 67% then betting Dallas Cowboys on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Green Bay Packers +5.0 Points Spread Line Moves


With Green Bay Packers you're getting 1.0 more points now versus when the line first opened. The best time to have taken the POINTS SPREAD so far with Green Bay Packers was when the line was 5.5.






Dallas Cowboys -5.0 Points Spread Line Moves


The best time to have taken the POINTS SPREAD so far with Dallas Cowboys was when the line was -4.0.






Green Bay Packers at
Dallas Cowboys Total Points +52.5 Line Moves


The TOTAL POINTS has moved up 1.0 points. The best time to take the OVER was when the total was at 51.5.

There has never been a better time to take the UNDER at 52.5 if you like it.








When the moneyline is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting against that team and the oddsmakers are increasing the payout so more people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team negativly.

  • Whenever the moneyline is moving up you get paid more if you win.

When the moneyline is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the payout.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team positively. This positive information decreases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving up it usually means

  • The public is betting on the other team and the oddsmakers are giving this team more points so people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team negativly. This negative information increases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the points for that team.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team positively.


When the over/under is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on a high score.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring more scoring.


When the over/under is moving down it usually means

  • The public is betting on a low scoring game.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring less scoring.





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