Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Pick
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Detroit Tigers moneyline (+112.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $2120.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Monday, 17 Jul 2017 10:06 AM

pick locked in 2 months ago


My Projected Lines and the odds
Detroit Tigers beat Blue Jays yesterday and they won 3 out of last 4 games. They will face Kansas City Royals on the road with Vargas on the mound. Kansas beat Texas yesterday by 4-3, but that win is just only one in last 6 games. The bookmakers opened Detroit as huge underdog of around 2.40 (+140), but then they adjusted the numbers and the odds dropped to around 2.15-2.20. Some bookmakers still have Detroit Tigers at 2.30. And all those numbers are value numbers based on my predictive model. I have projected, that Detroit has 50.5% of chance to win this game and Kansas City 49.5%. Basically 50-50 game and if you can get the odds around 2.20, there is some value with Detroit today.

Match Up
Detroit score 5.2 runs per game against left handed pitchers, which is their best situation. And not only, that they score more against lefties than against righties, they also have very good numbers against Jason Vargas, who will start game for Kansas. In 149 at bats, they have 9 home runs and batting average of 0.297 against him. Upton, Cabrera, V. Martinez, Avila and Kinsler, they all have batting average of more than 0.300 against him in the past. And those players are key players for Detroit Tigers. If they can continue with good numbers against Vargas, he could have long day.

On the other side we have Zimmermann, who will start the game for Detroit Tigers and Kansas score 4.1 runs per game versus right handed pitcher. And in last 7 games, they scored only 3.3 runs per game. Zimmerman is 2-0 against Kansas in his career and last year when he faced them he struck out 13 Kansas hitters in 14 innings pitched. I am not fooled buy his numbers, because he is still not great, but when we take into account Vargas bad numbers against Detroit and current form from both teams, I think this game is more 50-50, than anything else.

Reason for pick
Vargas has bad numbers against Detroit Tigers players. In last 3 games, he allowed 5 home runs and we all know, that Tigers have a lot of power too. Detroit is playing better lately, after all, they won a series against Blue Jays. On the other side Kansas lost 5 out of last 6 games, where they struggle to score runs (Last 7 games = 3.3 runs, BA 0.224). I have projected, that this game should be 50-50. I expect, that if I play Detroit in this game and if they win, that bookmakers will pay me 1 unit of profit (if I bet 1 unit). They would pay me more and I think we have a nice value bet with Detroit.

Play Detroit




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SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Convert?w=60&h=60&fit=clip Detroit Tigers +1.5 +110.0 11.0
Convert?w=60&h=60&fit=clip Kansas City Royals -1.5 -110.0

This is the Consensus Fair Line.   what is the Fair Line?


J. Zimmermann -R vs J. Vargas -L



Game time: Monday 7/17, 8:15 PM


Detroit Tigers 10 FINAL
Kansas City Royals 2


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Payout Information


points adjust ML Over/Under adjust
Detroit Tigers +1.5 -162.0 +110.0 11.0 over 104.0
Kansas City Royals -1.5 162.0 -110.0 11.0 under -104.0

A $100 Moneyline bet on Detroit Tigers +110.0 cashes for $210.00
A $100 Moneyline bet on Kansas City Royals -110.0 cashes for $190.91
A $100 Points Spread bet on Detroit Tigers +1.5 cashes for $161.73
A $100 Points Spread bet on Kansas City Royals -1.5 cashes for $262.00
A $100 Over bet on the total points 11.0 cashes for $204.00
A $100 Under bet on the total points 11.0 cashes for $196.15




Line Moves For Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Monday 7/17, 8:15 PM EST


Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Detroit Tigers +110.0 Moneyline Moves


Detroit Tigers MONEYLINE payout currently is $210.00 for a $100 bet. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $246.00.

These MONEYLINE odds imply Detroit Tigers a 48% chance of winning. If you think Detroit Tigers chances of winning are better than 48% then betting Detroit Tigers on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Kansas City Royals -110.0 Moneyline Moves


Kansas City Royals MONEYLINE payout currently is $190.91 for a $100 bet. Kansas City Royals MONEYLINE payout has increased $21.94 versus when the moneyline first opened.

If you like Kansas City Royals on the MONEYLINE, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. The question is will this chart improve even more or should you bet it now?

These MONEYLINE odds imply Kansas City Royals a 52% chance of winning. If you think Kansas City Royals chances of winning are better than 52% then betting Kansas City Royals on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Detroit Tigers +1.5 Points Spread Line Moves


If you like Detroit Tigers with the POINTS SPREAD, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. Will the spread for Detroit Tigers get even better as the game gets closer is the question?






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Kansas City Royals -1.5 Points Spread Line Moves


If you like Kansas City Royals with the POINTS SPREAD, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. Will the spread for Kansas City Royals get even better as the game gets closer is the question?






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Detroit Tigers at
Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Kansas City Royals Total Points +11.0 Line Moves


The TOTAL POINTS has moved up 2.0 points. The best time to take the OVER was when the total was at 9.0.

There has never been a better time to take the UNDER at 11.0 if you like it.








When the moneyline is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting against that team and the oddsmakers are increasing the payout so more people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team negativly.

  • Whenever the moneyline is moving up you get paid more if you win.

When the moneyline is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the payout.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team positively. This positive information decreases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving up it usually means

  • The public is betting on the other team and the oddsmakers are giving this team more points so people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team negativly. This negative information increases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the points for that team.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team positively.


When the over/under is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on a high score.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring more scoring.


When the over/under is moving down it usually means

  • The public is betting on a low scoring game.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring less scoring.





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