$1,000.00 Pick documented: Friday, 02 Feb 2018 10:33 AM
pick locked in 4 months ago
I’m taking NE -4 -105 at heritage. Line is between 4-4.5 depending on where you look or what you got. Honestly I like it up to 6. Only 5 of the 50 something Super Bowls ever has the point spread even came into play. Meaning favorites cover and dogs win outright. Don’t get to hung up on a dead number here. My line on the game was NE -5 and my SP were split. Only marginal advantage there. Lets look at some other things.
The look ahead Line was NE -7 before the championship games. What changed to lower this line 3 points? Mostly it is just recently bias. NE struggled to get by Jacksonville. Philly crushed Minnesota. Book makers are smart. They know this phenomenon exist and will exploit it to the best of their ability. To me this makes the Patriots the value side here. I am getting 3 extra points on the raw line. Lets look into this recently bias.
Philly came out strong and beat up the Minnesota team who escaped their last game with the miracle in Minnesota. I believed this to be a problem for the Vikings. But even a bigger part to this Philly run is they got to get two dome teams at home outside in January. This does matter. I don’t care what anyone tells you. I am not making this at all about Foles. He has been decent in the playoffs. When it matters most.
You could go on about matchups forever on the Super Bowl. It is the most analyzed game basically ever. And I am not going to go into this a ton because as you all know I am not a huge matchup guy. But....Philly one weakness according to the talking heads is the middle of the field for the Philly defense. And who better than Brady/Belichick to expose this. One, Brady has been here done this so many times this moment wont bother him. And Hoodie is the best to ever hold a clipboard. If there is a weakness at some point in the game he WILL figure it out and expose it.
I’m going into a bit of the market and what I see. Look the SB is a bit different. It is driven by massive amounts of money. It isn’t like other games where you can read into the lines a lot based on % of tickets money. But that being said there is info out there that lean me a certain way in this game. The numbers just for fun are pretty split on the line. Money and tickets. There has been a good bit more ML bets on Philly and the money is higher also. It has been well reported about the “Sharks” dropping millions around Vegas on PHI. This is not unusual for this game. Don’t these guys forget NE has won 8/10 ATS. And 11-5 for the season. 3 of the L5 were double digits favorites. Why all the sudden do people think this Eagles team after one big game (1/4 ATS L5) can take down the mighty giant. People love the underdog in these spots.
Okay. This all makes me sound like a NE fan. I most certainly am NOT. I don’t like them at all. I highly respect what they have done over the years. And I don’t think they start losing here. I believe they will win and cover the number and I believe it will be easy. Belichick was asked a couple times about not scoring in first quarter in any their Super Bowls. I had never heard that and judging by look on his face (the same I am mad at the world look he usually has) he hadn’t either. I don’t doubt he does some early scoring.
So there it is. Not to sound Touty but I have hit last 5 Super Bowls right and I am hoping to make this the 6th. Honestly I don’t think I have any crazy SB knowledge that hasn’t been said 300 times this week. And this one goes a little against what I normally would do. Most the time I would lean to the better defense. But I hatedoing that against the hoodie. Good Luck Sunday. Play some props for small change. Enjoy the last football game of the year!
Bet Leagues & Investment Funds
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|New England Patriots||-4.5||-185.0|
|New England Patriots||33|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+4.5||+100.0||+185.0||48.5 over||-105.0|
|New England Patriots||-4.5||100.0||-185.0||48.5 under||105.0|
|A $100 Moneyline bet on Philadelphia Eagles +185.0 cashes for||$285.00|
|A $100 Moneyline bet on New England Patriots -185.0 cashes for||$154.05|
|A $100 Points Spread bet on Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 cashes for||$200.00|
|A $100 Points Spread bet on New England Patriots -4.5 cashes for||$200.00|
|A $100 Over bet on the total points 48.5 cashes for||$195.24|
|A $100 Under bet on the total points 48.5 cashes for||$205.00|
|Philadelphia Eagles +185.0 Moneyline Moves|
Philadelphia Eagles MONEYLINE payout currently is $285.00 for a $100 bet. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $317.00.
These MONEYLINE odds imply Philadelphia Eagles a 35% chance of winning. If you think Philadelphia Eagles chances of winning are better than 35% then betting Philadelphia Eagles on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.
|New England Patriots -185.0 Moneyline Moves|
New England Patriots MONEYLINE payout currently is $154.05 for a $100 bet. New England Patriots MONEYLINE payout has increased $7.97 versus when the moneyline first opened. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $156.82.
These MONEYLINE odds imply New England Patriots a 65% chance of winning. If you think New England Patriots chances of winning are better than 65% then betting New England Patriots on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.
|Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 Points Spread Line Moves|
The best time to have taken the POINTS SPREAD so far with Philadelphia Eagles was when the line was 6.0.
|New England Patriots -4.5 Points Spread Line Moves|
With New England Patriots you're getting 1.5 more points now versus when the line first opened.
If you like New England Patriots with the POINTS SPREAD, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. Will the spread for New England Patriots get even better as the game gets closer is the question?
|Philadelphia Eagles at|
|New England Patriots Total Points +48.5 Line Moves|
The TOTAL POINTS has moved up 1.5 points. The best time to take the OVER was when the total was at 47.0.
There has never been a better time to take the UNDER at 48.5 if you like it.