Appalachian St vs Texas State Pick
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Icon-ok Texas State (-4.0) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 03 Feb 2018 2:11 PM

pick locked in 6 months ago


I got TEXST -4 -104 at heritage. Available plenty of outlets. My line was -5.5. This line opened at -6. This was not really a good line. And I do think that in itself kinda raises a flag. The public came in on APPST pretty heavy. Around 65% of tickets and 75% of money. And the line moved in right direction but to far IMO. You have to ask yourself why was line set at -6?

My SP agreed with my 5.5 line. Texas ST is 7-3 L10 SU and 5-5 ATS. APPST 3-7 and 4-6 respectfully. The original -6 line is to high if you compare it to lines against similar opponents. Stats between these to are close with APPST being the better 3 point team. I could have easily make a good argument for APPST +6. But that isn’t what I did here.

I keep going back to the line. -4 is a over correction. It is -4 everywhere but Pinny and that in itself is a sign. This feels like they made this line to get APPST $ and it worked. I am taking the favorite here. Good luck all!

Sorry for the late pick today. Had some personal shit to attend to.
Early games went solid 3-0. Here are the later leans that I didnt tweet out.

Indst +
Mia OH +
Baylor -
HI -
Fordham+

Nothing really in NBA today.




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North

Balance: $2,128.94
Sharky Group Pick Investment Fund

Balance: -$2,055.17






SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Convert?w=60&h=60&fit=clip Appalachian St +4.0 +167.0 134.0
Convert?w=60&h=60&fit=clip Texas State -4.0 -167.0

This is the Consensus Fair Line.   what is the Fair Line?



Game time: Saturday 2/3, 5:30 PM


Appalachian St 59 FINAL
Texas State 56


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Payout Information


points adjust ML Over/Under adjust
Appalachian St +4.0 -107.0 +167.0 134.0 over 100.0
Texas State -4.0 107.0 -167.0 134.0 under 100.0

A $100 Moneyline bet on Appalachian St +167.0 cashes for $267.00
A $100 Moneyline bet on Texas State -167.0 cashes for $159.88
A $100 Points Spread bet on Appalachian St +4.0 cashes for $193.46
A $100 Points Spread bet on Texas State -4.0 cashes for $207.00
A $100 Over bet on the total points 134.0 cashes for $200.00
A $100 Under bet on the total points 134.0 cashes for $200.00




Line Moves For Appalachian St at Texas State

Saturday 2/3, 5:30 PM EST


Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Appalachian St +167.0 Moneyline Moves


Appalachian St MONEYLINE payout currently is $267.00 for a $100 bet. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $317.00.

These MONEYLINE odds imply Appalachian St a 37% chance of winning. If you think Appalachian St chances of winning are better than 37% then betting Appalachian St on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Texas State -167.0 Moneyline Moves


Texas State MONEYLINE payout currently is $159.88 for a $100 bet. Texas State MONEYLINE payout has increased $13.80 versus when the moneyline first opened.

If you like Texas State on the MONEYLINE, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. The question is will this chart improve even more or should you bet it now?

These MONEYLINE odds imply Texas State a 63% chance of winning. If you think Texas State chances of winning are better than 63% then betting Texas State on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Appalachian St +4.0 Points Spread Line Moves


The best time to have taken the POINTS SPREAD so far with Appalachian St was when the line was 6.0.






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Texas State -4.0 Points Spread Line Moves


With Texas State you're getting 1.5 more points now versus when the line first opened.

If you like Texas State with the POINTS SPREAD, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. Will the spread for Texas State get even better as the game gets closer is the question?






Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Appalachian St at
Convert?w=40&h=40&fit=clip Texas State Total Points +134.0 Line Moves


The TOTAL POINTS has moved down -1.0 points. The best time to take the UNDER was when the total was at 135.0.

If you like the OVER at 134.0, there has never been a better time to take it.








When the moneyline is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting against that team and the oddsmakers are increasing the payout so more people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team negativly.

  • Whenever the moneyline is moving up you get paid more if you win.

When the moneyline is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the payout.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team positively. This positive information decreases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving up it usually means

  • The public is betting on the other team and the oddsmakers are giving this team more points so people will bet on them.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting the team negativly. This negative information increases the payout for a win.


When the points spread is moving down it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on this team and the oddsmakers are decreasing the points for that team.

  • There could be an injury update or other information affecting that team positively.


When the over/under is moving up it usually means

  • Most of the public is betting on a high score.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring more scoring.


When the over/under is moving down it usually means

  • The public is betting on a low scoring game.

  • Conditions, player updates, etc. could be favoring less scoring.





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