$1,000.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 03 Feb 2018 2:11 PM
pick locked in 4 months ago
I got TEXST -4 -104 at heritage. Available plenty of outlets. My line was -5.5. This line opened at -6. This was not really a good line. And I do think that in itself kinda raises a flag. The public came in on APPST pretty heavy. Around 65% of tickets and 75% of money. And the line moved in right direction but to far IMO. You have to ask yourself why was line set at -6?
My SP agreed with my 5.5 line. Texas ST is 7-3 L10 SU and 5-5 ATS. APPST 3-7 and 4-6 respectfully. The original -6 line is to high if you compare it to lines against similar opponents. Stats between these to are close with APPST being the better 3 point team. I could have easily make a good argument for APPST +6. But that isn’t what I did here.
I keep going back to the line. -4 is a over correction. It is -4 everywhere but Pinny and that in itself is a sign. This feels like they made this line to get APPST $ and it worked. I am taking the favorite here. Good luck all!
Sorry for the late pick today. Had some personal shit to attend to.
Nothing really in NBA today.
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|Appalachian St||+4.0||-107.0||+167.0||134.0 over||100.0|
|Texas State||-4.0||107.0||-167.0||134.0 under||100.0|
|A $100 Moneyline bet on Appalachian St +167.0 cashes for||$267.00|
|A $100 Moneyline bet on Texas State -167.0 cashes for||$159.88|
|A $100 Points Spread bet on Appalachian St +4.0 cashes for||$193.46|
|A $100 Points Spread bet on Texas State -4.0 cashes for||$207.00|
|A $100 Over bet on the total points 134.0 cashes for||$200.00|
|A $100 Under bet on the total points 134.0 cashes for||$200.00|
|Appalachian St +167.0 Moneyline Moves|
Appalachian St MONEYLINE payout currently is $267.00 for a $100 bet. The best payout so far on a $100 MONEYLINE bet has been $317.00.
These MONEYLINE odds imply Appalachian St a 37% chance of winning. If you think Appalachian St chances of winning are better than 37% then betting Appalachian St on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.
|Texas State -167.0 Moneyline Moves|
Texas State MONEYLINE payout currently is $159.88 for a $100 bet. Texas State MONEYLINE payout has increased $13.80 versus when the moneyline first opened.
If you like Texas State on the MONEYLINE, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. The question is will this chart improve even more or should you bet it now?
These MONEYLINE odds imply Texas State a 63% chance of winning. If you think Texas State chances of winning are better than 63% then betting Texas State on the MONEYLINE would be a smart bet for you.
|Appalachian St +4.0 Points Spread Line Moves|
The best time to have taken the POINTS SPREAD so far with Appalachian St was when the line was 6.0.
|Texas State -4.0 Points Spread Line Moves|
With Texas State you're getting 1.5 more points now versus when the line first opened.
If you like Texas State with the POINTS SPREAD, there has never been a better time so far to bet it. Will the spread for Texas State get even better as the game gets closer is the question?
|Appalachian St at|
|Texas State Total Points +134.0 Line Moves|
The TOTAL POINTS has moved down -1.0 points. The best time to take the UNDER was when the total was at 135.0.
If you like the OVER at 134.0, there has never been a better time to take it.